Soccer Betting Strategies That Actually Make a Difference

Soccer is the most popular sport in the world, and it’s on the rise in the US - with more and more Americans playing it, watching it and betting on it. There are literally millions of bets placed on it every week… across domestic leagues, international tournaments, and cup competitions. 

But if you want to give yourself the best chance of winning, you need to remember that it’s about more than just luck and guesswork; you’ll need a strategy - one that helps you make the best possible choice, manage your money, and give you the best chance of walking away winning more than you lose. Whether you’re after a bit of MLS betting or you’re interested in trying your luck with the competitive Premier League odds at Boyle Sports, let's take a look at some of the best strategies to help you get winning!

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Bankroll Management - The Most Important

Before you even think about making a bet, you need to set yourself a budget. Bankroll management is the single most important thing of all. If you don’t have that, any other strategy is dead in the water.

Set a budget: Decide how much you’re prepared to bet (and potentially lose) and stick to it.

Use unit staking: Top bettors use ‘units’ (1 unit = 1% of your bankroll) to make sure bets are consistent in size.

Don’t Chase losses: If you start increasing your bets after you’ve lost, it’s the quickest way to lose all your money.

Stay disciplined and you’ll stay in the game!

Value Bets - Don’t Just Bet on the Favorite

A lot of beginners just bet on the team that’s favorite to win… but experienced bettors know that the real bets are the ones with value. Finding a value bet involves looking for odds that you think are higher than they should be based on what you know of the game.

For example, if you think PSG has a 60% chance of winning, you’d expect the odds to be 1.66. If you can find a bookmaker offering 1.85, that’s a value bet.

For this, you’ll need -

A solid understanding of the sport and league(s).

The ability to calculate implied probabilities from the betting odds.

A willingness to bet on a less popular team.

Specialise in One League or Market

There are lots of soccer betting markets… match result, over/under goals, BTTS, corner bets and more. If you try to spread yourself too thin, it could lead to making bad decisions. Have a specialist subject.

For example, you could:

Only bet on Premier League games.

Concentrate on over/under markets.

Track trends - such as how often a team scores in the first half.

If you have a specialist subject, it’ll give you the edge over casual bettors.

Analysing the Stats and Data

Going with your gut really won’t be enough for long-term success. These days, the heart of any serious betting strategy is data analysis. Look at metrics such as:

Expected Goals (xG): The quality of scoring chances.

Possession stats: Good for betting on markets like corners or shots on target.

Head-to-head records: Some teams usually beat a certain opponent.

Form and injuries: Recent performance and important players out injured or suspended can affect the result. 

It won’t necessarily guarantee you a win, but it’s better than relying on a lucky guess.

Going for the “Draw No Bet” Safety Net

If you want to take the risk levels down a notch, then the Draw No Bet option is well worth considering. Effectively, you’re still betting on what team you think will win, but if it ends up being a draw, you’ll get your money back. It’s the ideal option if you think the match is too close to call or if you think the underdog has a decent chance against the favorite.

Because there’s less risk, the payouts are smaller than standard win bets, but it can be worth it.

Betting on Goals Instead of Results

Sometimes it’s difficult to predict who’s going to win a match, especially if it’s an evenly matched game… in this instance, it’s probably easier to bet on goals, with markets like:

Over/under total goals

Both teams to score (BTTS).

Team-specific goals (e.g. Chelsea will score at least 2 goals).

It’s a great option if you’re betting on more attacking leagues or where the defensive weaknesses are obvious.

Avoid Emotional Betting

Most soccer fans have teams that they are passionate about… and betting on them out of loyalty is probably the most common mistake of all. It’s easy to overestimate the chances of your favorite team - but that’s just betting with your heart and not your head. You have to stay objective, as tough as it might be… even if it means betting against your team.

Understanding The Psychology Behind Betting 

Understanding the psychology of betting is a major part of betting:

Don’t get frustrated and place bets you wouldn’t have otherwise.
 

Stick to your strategy, even if you are going through a losing streak.
 

And remember, enjoying a few wins doesn’t make you infallible - so don’t get overconfident!

Keep a record of all your bets, analyse your wins and losses, and it should help you to improve moving forward.

Combining Strategies

For the best chance of success, you might think about combining strategies:

First, only go for value bets.

Then use statistical analysis to make your decision

Manage your bankroll to stay in the game long-term.

Essentially, combining them can help to balance risk and reward.

Discipline, Analysis and Luck

Soccer betting is as much about analysing data and being disciplined as it is about having luck on your side. So, manage your bankroll carefully, look for value bets, get yourself a specialist subject and have fun!

I (AKA CatBurg) have a lifelong passion for sports, especially football and basketball. I enjoy the thrill and excitement of sports betting and everything in between. My teams are (Packers #GoPackGo) and who I am betting on!