Masters Magician: Is Hideki Matsuyama a Value Bet at Augusta?

The split between LIV Golf and the sport’s traditional tours has arguably made it more difficult for casual fans—those who usually check in for significant events like the Majors—to keep their fingers on the pulse of all of golf’s narratives, keep track of who is on form, etc. Attention can be split regarding broadcasting and how the broader sports media covers certain players. It means that some players can go under the radar.

A case in point, we argue, is Hideki Matsuyama. The Japanese star has ground his way back to world number six, and he has a couple of big wins under his belt in the last six months, including the FedEx St Jude Championship and The Sentry. At one point last year, Matsuyama had fallen to 55 in the world (his highest is no.2), so you can claim that this is a player going in the right direction in terms of form.

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Decent odds available for Japanese star

Matsuyama can be found at generous odds in the Masters golf betting lines, around the +2800 mark. The favorite, Scottie Scheffler, is priced at +350. You can appreciate why plenty of bettors will be lumping on Scheffler. The world number one is going for his 3^rd Green Jacket in four years, and he has the best form of any golfer over the past couple of years.

Yet, golf betting is about sniffing out value where you can find it, and Matsuyama certainly fits the bill in that respect. He is a former Masters champion, so we know he will have little problem dealing with the pressure. We know, too, that Masters history is littered with champions who have come back a few years later to win again – Bubba Watson, Ben Crenshaw, Bernhard Langer, to name a few.

Matsuyama has an average finishing position of 15^th over the last ten appearances at Augusta. That might not sound spectacular, but it’s imposing. His consistency at Augusta has meant he has rarely missed the cut, so it’s a question of whether he can find the extra edge as he did in 2021. For those less risk averse, he may well be worth exploring in the place betting markets for a top 5 or top 10 finish.

LIV players may offer some value

There is most certainly value to be found elsewhere in the markets. We would argue that some LIV players have been underserved in the betting odds. The likes of Bryson DeChambeau, who won the US Open last year, are available at a decent price, and there is also the player who has arguably been the best performer on LIV over the previous year – Joaquin Niemann. The Chilean has not had a good record at Majors, but if he can bring his LIV form to Augusta, he could make the +2800 odds look generous.

Nonetheless, for us, it is Japan’s greatest-ever golfer that screams value. He has all the attributes you want coming into a Masters tournament – good form, course experience, and, of course, the fact he has done it all before. Indeed, if you need some convincing, go back and look at his performance at The Sentry earlier this year – Matsuyama hit 35 under par, which is a record on the PGA Tour.

I (AKA CatBurg) have a lifelong passion for sports, especially football and basketball. I enjoy the thrill and excitement of sports betting and everything in between. My teams are (Packers #GoPackGo) and who I am betting on!