NFL 2025 Season: Practicing Patience with Your Betting Strategy

September is fast approaching, and with it, we start the new NFL season. Most bettors will keenly see the preseason games across August, looking at how new pieces fit into teams’ plans and whether tactical innovations will pay off. Yet, while we can certainly learn some things in preseason, it can also be a little misleading. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs went 0-3 in the 2024 NFL preseason games but ended up with a 15-2 record and went to the Super Bowl. The Tennessee Titans went 3-0, yet they posted a 3-14 record in the 2024 regular season.

Yet, from a betting perspective, we’d like to go a little further and discuss how you might have a cautious approach in September, too, holding fire until you have puzzled out how teams and players are settling in. It’s not just about futures Super Bowl or MVP betting, but specific statistics-backed NFL player props betting and other game markets. It’s not a question of fearing risk but practicing patience.

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The 49ers went off the rails in 2024

For example, consider the San Francisco 49ers of last season. The 49ers came into the new season as Super Bowl runners-up from the previous February. Many experts thought that they would be in the mix again. Indeed, some sportsbooks had the 49ers as co-favorites with the Chiefs. The 49ers started with a routine win over the New York Jets, and even though a couple of defeats followed (Vikings, Rams), there seemed little reason to panic. In Week 5, however, the defeat at Levi’s Stadium against the Cardinals suggested that this was not a playoff-bound team. Injuries to key players, like Trent Williams, made a difference, but there was a sense of decline across the team, and it came to the fore later in the fall.

The point, as such, is that you would have been well aware that any futures bets on the 49ers going to – and winning – the Super Bowl would have been considered a bust by the late fall, but the signs were there earlier in the season. On the other hand, you had the Eagles, a team that grew into the season. Looking back at the team’s 2-2 record before its Bye Week, there were only scant signs that this was a Super Bowl team. Players like Saquon Barkley consistently stood out, but Jalen Hurts took a little while to get going.

Better odds for the Eagles in mid-season

But here’s the kicker: The Eagles were priced at +1200 to win Super Bowl LIX in preseason. But the odds increased across the season. In Week 9, when the Eagles had found their groove, going 6-2 and mid-way through a 10-game winning streak, you could find odds of +1600 on the eventual Super Bowl winner. It’s a great example of how you can be patient and wait for a team to show its hand, yet still pick up some betting value.

Of course, it is not always so simple. Sometimes you will wait too long and get a worse price than you could have gotten in the preseason. Other times, a team’s form will suddenly dip, and the season hits the skids, even though you have seen evidence to the contrary. But being patient can pay off, as both the Eagles and 49ers showed last season. Nobody says you shouldn’t bet in September – or earlier – but if you aren’t 100% certain, waiting a few weeks to see how the season unfolds can pay off.

I (AKA CatBurg) have a lifelong passion for sports, especially football and basketball. I enjoy the thrill and excitement of sports betting and everything in between. My teams are (Packers #GoPackGo) and who I am betting on!