What Percentage Of Bets Do You Have To Win To Break Even?

What percentage of bets do you have to win to break even_
What percentage of bets do you have to win to break even_

Almost all sports bettors get into the industry in hopes of making some money. The reality is that most people will lose money by betting on sports, but bettors should at least be trying to reach the break even point. 

The question of, “What percentage of bets do you have to win to break even?” can be extremely difficult to answer, but there are a few examples that make it easier to understand. At CentSports you don’t ever have to worry about breaking even, because your account will be reloaded anytime you run out.

If you are planning on betting at major sportsbooks with big money involved, here are a few different ways to calculate the number of bets that you need to win to at least break even. 

Standard Juice Break-Even Point

Juice is the amount of money that a sportsbook charges to take your bets. This is also represented in betting odds, and it’s the amount of money that you will win if you bet a certain amount.

The standard juice is -110, and almost all spread bets or total bets will offer these lines. The standard juice break-even point then is set at 52.3%.

Most sports bettors think that winning 50 percent of bets will allow them to break even, but that’s simply not the case after you pay the sportsbook. A moneyline of -110 means that it would take a $110 bet to win $100. Or at CentSports, it would take a wager of $0.11 to win $0.10.

Winning 50 percent of your bets is a pretty solid number, especially for new bettors, but that isn’t going to make you any money. In fact, you won’t start making big bucks until you start winning over 60 percent of your bets at the break-even point. 

Break Even Point Changes When Juice Changes

Even though most sportsbooks offer standard juice at -110, that isn’t the case at all sportsbooks. CentSports will offer juice lower than that for some events, and that can change your break-even point.

If you are someone that is going to get into sports betting, then it’s a smart idea to shop around and look for sportsbooks that offer lower juice. Finding juice at -105 as opposed to -110 could save you $5 for every $100 bet that you win. The 52.3 percent no longer applies in this scenario, and it can be easier to reach the break-even point. 

Betting Underdogs Changes Everything

Another way to change your break-even point is to bet on underdogs. Any time you bet on an underdog and win, your break-even point changes slightly. 

On the flip side of that, if you continue to bet on heavy favorites, then you will need to increase the number of bets that you win. Here is a brief example of what this might look like:

  • –110 = 52.3% +110 = 46.6%
  • –115 = 53.4% +115 = 46.5%
  • –120 = 54.5% +120 = 45.4%
  • –125 = 55.5% +125 = 44.4%
  • –130 = 56.5% +130 = 43.4%

The percentages in the chart above dictate the number of bets that you must win to break even. The standard -110 juice still offers the 52.3% that we discussed above, but the rest of that column shows you the amount you need to win if you bet on even bigger favorites.

The column on the right breaks down the percentage of bets needed to win if you bet on underdogs. Betting on underdogs at +130 consistently only requires you to win 43.4% of your bets to break even. 

Moneyline Betting Is Hard to Compute

If you are someone that enjoys placing moneyline bets, then it will be extremely difficult for you to determine your break-even point. Moneyline bets are extremely popular in baseball, hockey, and soccer, and the betting lines are always different depending on the game. 

Betting on underdogs and nailing a few of these money line bets will be extremely helpful to you in trying to break even. A big underdog money line win can take the place of several moneyline losses on the favorites. 

You should still be betting with the same betting unit when placing a moneyline bet, but the amount of money you can receive by winning the bet differs dramatically. If this is your style of betting, it is best to use a computer program that can keep track of all of the information for you. 

CentSports offers plenty of moneyline bets as well, and it can be a great way to win big, but it’s important not to chase your losses. Stick to your betting plan, and always know your break-even point.

What do you think?


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