In the ever-changing NBA, betting can become quite difficult if you don’t know what you’re looking for. Paying attention to trends helps, but more often than not, bettors can get lost when trying to play the NBA over/under betting game.
On its surface, it seems simple, pick whether a total is going to go over or under. However, I’ve seen plenty of parlays across all sports get ruined by this fickle option. Some bettors have even elected to leave it completely off their parlay, not wanting to ruin it by an inconsistent score.
Leaving the over/under off the ticket, however, leaves money on the table, money that you can capitalize on.
In an effort to get you more winning tickets and more money in your pocket, let’s go over five things you need to know about NBA over/under betting!
1. Don’t Get Caught In The Consensus
All too often, bettors find safety in numbers, if they notice the consensus states the game should go over, they place their bets and let it ride. Unfortunately, this is where a lot of bettors get it wrong! Over/unders are solely reliant on the teams’ performance, not what the masses are placing their bets on.
Not to mention, the more people bet the same, the more the line moves. Instead of focusing on what the masses are betting on, pay attention to whether the NBA over/under betting line rises. If you keep a close eye on that, you might be able to capitalize where others failed.
2. Under Is More Consistent Than Over
This is a pretty simple one, especially in the NBA betting. I’m willing to bet that if you asked a group of ten experienced bettors, at least 80% would say they’d take the under before the over. The reason is pretty simple; it depends on the team.
Watching highlights gives people the idea that the NBA has turned into a league without defense. If you’re careful about who you put the under on, though, you can pick a great defensive team with low offensive output to ensure they cover.
3. Injuries! Injuries! Injuries!
This ranks as one of the most important things to pay attention to when betting the over/under. This is also why I recommend not choosing the over/under until just before the game begins.
Teams in the NBA have instituted “resting” players with non-disclosed injuries, nothing can ruin your bet more than a player sitting out a game.
Monitoring injury reports help, but the most efficient way of protecting yourself is waiting until just before the game when the roster is finalized. That way, you’ll know exactly who is playing and won’t be surprised when a player isn’t on the court.
4. Teams History When Facing Each Other
This might sound tricky, especially when you take into account how many changes happen over the course of a season. However, if you’re able to find a trend in the teams’ history against each other, it can give you a leg up when betting.
A great way to do this in the NBA is to find their most recent game. If it happened in the last month and the total went over, evaluate what changes have happened and decide if you believe the over will strike again.
5. Pick NBA Over/under Betting Games Carefully
Don’t rush it! You don’t have to combine a point-spread wager with an over/under bet; if you wish to keep them separate, then do so. If there’s a game floating under the mainstream radar, check it out; usually you get better spreads on games that draw less of a market.
If you want a game that goes over, find teams that score efficiently but have weak defenses, i.e., the Houston Rockets. If you want the under, find the opposite, strong defense but lackluster offense. If you pick the games carefully and do the homework, you can make big money on the over/under.