Critical numbers in college basketball betting
If you are making college basketball picks, then you should probably do something to inform yourself on critical numbers. It is easy to understand critical numbers with college football picks, as they’re easy. Your most important numbers are 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 14, and so on. In basketball, things get a little bit trickier. So where do we start? Know that almost every number short of ten is going to be a critical one, but things start getting dicey at 4. If a team is down four, they are less likely to foul very late in the game as the clock is expiring. Down 3, they will most certainly foul.
The most critical of numbers hits when you get to 10. At double digits, teams typically stop fouling in an effort to extend the game. This means it is a lot easier to win a bet on an 8-point favorite than it is to win one on an 11-point favorite. Though it might seem like just three points, they can end up being very important points. If you understand this before making college basketball picks, you will give yourself a much better chance at success.
Keep it simple, stupid
One of the biggest problems that college basketball handicappers run into is that they try to complicate things. Handicapping is certainly not the easiest thing in the world, but it doesn’t have to be hard. The key to making good college basketball picks is to first know what is important, and then train yourself to only consider those things. Analyze the teams and their fatigue levels. Study matchups and know whether one team is going to run right into another’s strengths. You may even want to study up on home courts in college basketball to give yourself a legitimate edge. If you do this, you will stand a great chance.
Where handicappers run into problems with their college basketball picks is when they try to get too cute. Instead of looking at the things that matter, they start thinking about “motivation” and other factors that are impossible to quantify. You must accept from the beginning that some factors just cannot go into your analysis when you are making picks. You have to limit your scope of research to those things that really matter and then you must spend your time analyzing those items as thoroughly as possible.
The predictable game
I have often heard people talking about how basketball – and college buckets in particular – is the most unpredictable game out there. After making college basketball picks for many years, I would have to disagree with this on many levels. Basketball involves a round ball on a level court. It involves a round goal with level glass. Things are predictable in basketball. The ball will generally bounce up in the same spot every single time. When you hear people talk about how unpredictable the game is, there is a good chance you’re talking to people making losing bets.
As you make college basketball picks, recognize that the game has been played hundreds of times already with varying results. When a struggling team that can’t rebound heads on the road to play a team with good interior players, there is going to be a predictable result there. It should be obvious that this rule doesn’t hold true 100% of the time, as there are often incidences where college players don’t play to the best of their ability. Still, this is no reason to really worry too much. If you make enough college basketball picks over a large enough sample of time, the predictable game should open up for you.
Attacking the early season
Smart bettors recognize that making college basketball picks in the early season will be a different process than making those same picks late in the year. As someone who likes to be successful and someone who enjoys money, you should be set on formulating an approach that helps you manage these differences. For one, you should not be looking to be every single game early in the year. There are times when those early lines are just whacky, so don’t think that you have to always have action. Often times, it is better to sit and wait on your opportunity to arise.
You can really do well by taking a hard look at a few different teams. Try to watch multiple games from one or two teams and understand how that team is playing. Are they underrated by the books for some reason? Are they better than the sportsbooks give them credit for? If you can watch teams and identify this before most of the public, then there will be a three or four game window where you can make big college basketball bets and cash the ticket. This is the ultimate value-betting spot, so make sure you get your chips into the middle of the table.
Summarizing college basketball handicapping
The season is close, and college basketball is a low of fun for people who know what they are doing. There are games every night, so you have a chance to make college basketball picks and walk away with a substantial amount of money. This is only true when your approach is sophisticated, though.
Respect home court
Rule number one is that you must respect home court and understand its impact. Playing at home is a huge deal for a lot of reasons, so don’t fall into the trap of consistently betting road teams. You will be much better off if you bet on home teams more often.
Respect the needs of college-aged players
College players are young, and they have needs. They need their rest, specifically, and they don’t play well when traveling long distances. If you remember, when making college basketball picks, that these are all still 20-year old men, you will be better off as a result. Don’t get into the habit of thinking that they are machines, because that will cause you to ignore the important factors that are likely staring you right in the face each and every night.