20 Things to Know When Betting the NFL
Dealing with NFL Rule Changes
When you make your NFL picks this season, you will want to keep an eye on any rule changes. Though most people think that football is just football, betting the NFL is all about the little things. Often times, games are won and lost at the margins. So you need to know what the rules are if you are going to be able to make money with NFL betting. So what are some of the NFL rule changes that you need to keep an eye on this year? Some will impact scoring significantly.
The first is the fact that the kickoff location has been moved up five years. This should result in more touchbacks. With more touchbacks, there will be worse starting field position and less scoring overall. The counter to this is that the kickoff team has to line up five yards behind the ball instead of ten. This will impact the kickoff coverage, so if a touchback doesn't happen, the field position will be better. Understand these things as you make your NFL picks this season. It could be the difference in a winning NFL betting season and a losing NFL betting season.
Betting Underdogs in the NFL
Often times it is smart to take a piece of "conventional" wisdom and see whether the wisdom is so wise. You will often find that it is not. In the NFL, one of the old maxims is that it's a good idea to bet underdogs. People say that you can make money betting underdogs blindly in the NFL, but is this really true? If you take a look at things, you will see that blindly betting anything - including underdogs - is not a recipe for success in the NFL. You should look deeper into games if you want to find success.
That is not to say that you need to ignore underdogs. They will be a good value a lot of the time. When you see an underdog, you need to give it the attention that it deserves. Just be careful about following betting the NFL hard rules. Making NFL picks is a complicated process and you need to think deeply before you go making picks on a certain game. This will give you a much better chance at success. Blindly doing NFL betting is bound to leave you in a hole at the end of the season.
Why NFL betting is hard
The NFL is difficult to bet on and most people understand this. Not too many people know why it's a difficult league, though. They don't take the time to ask the important question. The NFL is hard because there are so many factors that are difficult to quantify. Football in general is a game that requires a lot of effort. It requires a high degree of skill and it requires a lot of mental strain for players to get things right. This means that the margin for error of players is very small. This makes NFL betting a unique challenge.
Whereas you know what you are going to get with baseball players generally, this is not the case for NFL players. When you make your NFL picks, you will have to focus more on the qualitative aspects of the game. This is something that you will ultimately struggle to learn overnight, as well. If you want to win at the NFL, you'll need to spend time learning the game itself, watching the players, and predicting their reactions to certain decisions. Making NFL picks is about getting to know teams and their tendencies, as this is the only way to win over the long term.
The best NFL bettor
One of the most popular questions that I field is about the best NFL bettor. Who is he and what does he do to win? Why is he such an NFL betting savant? The best NFL bettor is the guy who knows a lot about the game and knows a lot about analysis. He knows how to use the psychological factors, as well. He is someone who not only sees all the angles, but has the guts to play them. The best NFL bettor is not a super human, but he is someone who understands the little parts of the game.
Too many people ignore the little things when making NFL picks. They need to recognize that games are won and lost on the margins. If you are going to be successful with NFL picks, you have to learn to look for the little factors that others ignore. You need to always consider weather and team travel. You need to always consider injuries. You need to look at the game and take a much more analytical approach to breaking it down. This is what the best NFL bettor does with his season long NFL picks.
Betting the NFL and the name game
One thing to note about the NFL is that you don't need to put too much stock in names. The idea behind sports betting is to get to the heart and reality of the matter. You need to know what each team and each player is all about. Their reputation is not nearly as important as the reality. When you make NFL picks, you must be very careful not to play the name game. Just because a guy might have a good reputation as a quarterback doesn't make him great at the back end of his career. Just because the Colts have had tons of success doesn't mean they are bound to continue.
The key when making NFL picks is to strip away everything that doesn't matter. Strip away all of the extras and get down to business, so to speak. This will make you a much more competitive bettor on the whole. You will not fall into those traps that other people fall into. You won't make the sucker NFL picks that will drown your bankroll. You will join the elite in betting the NFL that seem to always be on the right side of games.
How will the lockout impact NFL betting?
The NFL lockout will almost certainly have some impact on NFL betting, but the important question is what impact and how much? Will it impact scoring? Will it impact certain teams more than others? These are the questions that you need to ask in order to effectively compete in betting the NFL. The answer is that it depends on how long the lockout goes for. The longer the lockout, the more it will benefit the defenses in the NFL. Defense is somewhat simple to learn, but offense requires a lot of practice and a ton of timing. If teams aren't able to meet and compete, the defenses will benefit and the scoring will be lower.
Likewise, the lockout will adversely impact those teams that have new coaches and new quarterbacks. You might think about making NFL picks against teams with new coaches in the early weeks of the season. This will give you a chance to exploit those few weeks when the teams are still getting comfortable and familiar. You could make some easy money in NFL betting if you are able to spot those opportunities and exploit them properly.
Betting NFL Totals
When it comes to betting the NFL, you need to be well aware of totals and how they impact the game. Betting NFL totals is something that requires people to be on the ball both with the teams involved and the general trends of the league. There are some general rules to follow when it comes to NFL betting on totals. If you are making these NFL picks, you need to recognize that the over is often overpriced. People like to see scoring, so more of the public will bet the over. For this reason, the over is often shaded a point or two and you can gain value by betting the under.
Likewise, the most important thing in terms of impact on the total is weather. You need to always keep your eye on the weather report to determine just what is going on with the wind and with rain and snow. These things will keep teams from running their offenses and it will make passing more difficult. If you neglect the weather with your NFL picks, you will have a very difficult time coming away with wins in your NFL betting. Be diligent and you will reap the rewards.
The rules of NFL betting
So you are looking to start with NFL betting and you aren't really sure what to do? You need to start with a set of general rules for betting. This will guide you as you make your NFL picks and it will lead to more consistency in your NFL betting. One of the first rules of NFL betting is that you need to value the home field. It can be easy to forget all about home field and just assume that road teams will play well. You can't do this, though. A smart bettor understands and respects the impact of home field.
Along those same lines, you must make NFL picks according to certain psychological factors. For instance, you need to know when teams are tired or when they have some problems. You need to know when a team has had a long travel schedule and you need to quantify how this will impact them. Though it is hard to get specifics with this aspect of NFL betting, the key is to make sure that you are putting things into your calculations. Thinking through these psychological factors before making NFL picks is a really good idea that will help you over the long haul.
NFL Betting and Psychology
Psychology is the study of human beings and how they behave. Taken quite generally, it might not seem that NFL betting and psychology have anything to do with one another. This isn't the case, though. In reality, betting the NFL is tied to the hip with psychology. The people who make the most effective NFL picks often have the psychology of the game down pat. They have recognize the times when teams are unlikely to play up to their potential because of psychological factors. They then exploit those times and make winning bets as a result.
So what impacts psychology? Know first that a player is really only as good as his work ethic. If you see a time when a player is slacking off, it can impact a team in a big way. How can you find this information? You could use local newspapers, team forums, or other resources. Whatever it takes, you have to get inside of the team and figure out exactly what is taking place with the players. Likewise, you need to recognize the fact that certain things impact performance on the field. Travel schedules, for instance, will have a huge impact on how a team performs.
Halftime betting in the NFL
So you want a creative way to make NFL picks? You might begin by doing halftime bets. These are slightly different bets that can be used to up your winning percentage if you know what you are doing. So what should you think about when making these NFL picks? You need to recognize the fact that what you just saw in the first half may or may not be an indication of what you will see in the second half. Teams have a tendency to adjust in the second half, so remember that as you make your bets.
Likewise, you need to know that in NFL betting, this is the place where many bettors get "trapped" by the sports books. The books put out lines that look juicy and some bettors jump right on them. You don't want to get trapped by the books and bet on things that look too obvious. If something in betting the NFL seems too good to be true, know that is probably is. In all likelihood, the books aren't just going to give you a gift for no reason. Make sure that you look deeper and figure out what you are missing before you make your NFL picks.
Are NFL props profitable?
The idea when betting the NFL is to be profitable. No matter how you get the job done, if you have more money at the end of the season than at the beginning of the season, then you have been a success. So that begs the question - are NFL props a profitable venture? In betting the NFL , you can often make really good money by betting NFL props. You should only bet what you know, though. Props can be really good, but don't get out of your element when making the bets. Stick to players and items that you are familiar with.
The problem with NFL prop betting is that you're often lay big time juice in order to make the bet. This means that you need to keep very good records of your NFL picks to determine whether or not they are profitable. You need to be able to track your winning percentage to know whether or not scraping these picks is a good idea. There are many ways to to skin a cat in NFL betting, so concentrate your efforts on as many profitable ventures as you can. Don't limit yourself in NFL betting.
NFL Betting: The last weeks
One thing about NFL betting that is unique is that in the last few weeks of the season, things change dramatically. In the last few weeks, you will need to adjust your betting compass because the lines will look different and the teams will perform differently. What do you need to be looking out for? You need to look out for teams that are straight tanking in the last part of the year. These might be teams that have struggled very much and they're angling for a top pick. They might not like their coach and they're just mailing it in.
More common in betting the NFL is the team that is sitting people for the playoffs. When you make NFL picks, you need to keep your eye out for these opportunities. There are some teams that will only play their quarterback for ten minutes of the last two games of the year. This will quite obviously change the game a good bet. When you make your NFL picks, understanding this dynamic is incredibly important. You don't want to get stuck betting on a second team quarterback who may or may not have seen the field all year.
How to approach NFL preseason betting?
The NFL's preseason is a big deal from a betting perspective. Unlike other leagues, people actually care about the NFL preseason and they regularly bet on it. So what do you need to do? Well, my approach is to avoid the preseason, but that's probably not the answer that you are looking for. I don't make NFL picks on the preseason because it is often too unpredictable. If I wanted to play games of chance, I would head over to the blackjack table and enjoy that for three hours instead of betting the NFL preseason game.
Some will tell you to bet the first halves of preseason games only. This makes some sense in its own right. This makes sense because first halves provide a truer result much of the time. Instead of having to worry about who is going to play in the second half, you are basically betting on real NFL players in the first half. This is a really smart approach if you are one that hates the uncertainty. In betting the NFL, you need to make sure that you give yourself the optimal edge. Making NFL picks on only the first half can be a good way to do this.
When NFL Betting Goes Wrong
One thing to know about the NFL before you ever get started is that you can't win every time with your NFL picks. You need to approach NFL betting with this in mind or you will fail over the long term. Occasionally you are going to be on the wrong side of a game. Occasionally you will make NFL picks on the right side of a game and then you will lose on a bad beat. Despite losing these games, you have to stay strong in your betting the NFL approach. If you are doing it the right way, then you will have success over the long term.
The NFL season is a long haul. Including the playoffs, we are talking about more than 20 weeks of football. You have to stay patient and put in the time if you want to have the kind of success that you're probably looking for. When NFL betting goes wrong, you can't just run away or shrink away from the conversation. You have to be ready to come back firing the next week, holding on to the faith in your methods and believing that the wins will eventually come.
The basics of NFL betting
When you make NFL picks, one important thing is to stick to the NFL basics. Recognize the things that win and the things that don't. A lot of people will spend their time handicapping games that just don't matter. You can't fall into that trap. If you want to have success, you will have to bet using the things that actually impact games and win you money or lose you money. In betting the NFL, the basics come down to how many yards a team gains per play and how many yards they give up per play. This is as basic as it can get, but it's truly what matters most. Many other stats are just a reflection of the game environment.
NFL betting, as you will come to find, is a process in which you have to consider tons of factors. Don't fall into the trap of considering meaningless trends, though. The fact that Dallas is 3-7 against Green Bay in the last ten is irrelevant when all of the players on the teams have changed so many times over the last ten years. You must remember the things that matter and you have to analyze those things until your fingers bleed if you want to have success.
NFL Betting and Bonuses
One of the best ways to win in betting the NFL is to bet someone else's money. You can win betting your own money, but if there were ways to limit your risk, wouldn't you take advantage of those things. A smart bettor will eliminate the risk by using bonuses when he can. There are plenty of really good bonuses on the market today that can certainly help you get a leg up on your sports book. Some of the online books will match your first deposit up to 50%, so take advantage of those things.
Likewise, you need to keep in mind that there are ways to make free money with NFL picks on some of the books. Some books will offer you free plays on certain bets. Others will offer free contests throughout the year. Though you want to hit a high percentage and make money on your own, you must also take advantage of these things if you want to be successful in the long term. All of the good bettors online do this, and who wouldn't? It's free money, so take it while they are still offering it as an incentive to play with their book.
What does a good football sportsbook look like?
As you start with your betting the NFL, you will undoubtedly be faced with the difficult decision on which sports book to use. You want to use a good book and you want to be treated well, but football is really what you're all about. You want to make sure that you can make good NFL picks at this book.
The key is to first consider security and safety. Your money is most important, so consider a book that has strong financials and a great reputation. Without that, it won't matter how many ways you can bet on football.
Also look for a book that allows you to make football picks on a number of different things. For instance, you need a book that allows you to make NFL picks on props, first halves, futures, halftimes, and everything in between. Though you might not take advantage of all of these options, you should at least have them at your disposal. A good football book will offer that and more. They will also offer some creative ways to bet on football that most other books don't offer. Look for this and you will be happy with your choice.
The most important thing for a football team
There is some debate over what's the most important thing in football. When making NFL picks, you need to be aware of this debate and it would help if you had an opinion on the matter. The most important thing to an NFL team is not the wide receiver or the fullback. Some will say that it is the quarterback, but is this really true? In my years of betting the NFL, I have found that this isn't always right. In some cases, I make NFL picks using the offensive and defensive lines much more than the quarterback or any other skilled position.
So why are the lines important for NFL betting? It's because when you make NFL picks on a team that doesn't have a good line, it won't matter how good the position players are. The NFL is all about protecting the quarterback. If you can do it, then the rules dictate that the DBs can't defend receivers. If you can't protect the quarterback, then it won't matter if you have Joe Montana throwing to Jerry Rice. You will be out of luck with your NFL picks. Remember this as you get into NFL betting.
NFL Betting and "Value"
There is one important thing betting the NFL and it's "value". Some people make NFL picks without even thinking about this important idea and they are, quite often, sunk. You have to know what value is and you have to know how to identify it when you make your NFL picks. If you can do this, then you will find success more often than not. You will certainly find success in your long-term NFL betting and that is the most important thing. How you do in one day or two days is not nearly as important as how you do over the long haul.
When looking for value, your goal should always be to identify teams that are underrated by the betting public. Is there a reason why this team's true talent level is higher than the public perceives it? Perhaps they have gone on a losing streak? Perhaps they have certain players who are undervalued? Maybe they are playing a team that is a public favorite that week? These are all good things to consider when making your NFL picks, so you need to think about them before you finish your betting the NFL. This is the only way to truly win over the long haul.
NFL Betting and the Packers
As you complete your NFL betting preparation this year, you will need to consider the case of the Green Bay Packers. Always an NFL fan favorite, the Packers are in an interesting position this year. They've won it all, so that makes them a bit of a betting the NFL problem for 2011. The problem is that they will be overvalued pretty much all season. When a team wins a championship, people subconsciously overvalue them the next year. The books know this, so they shade the games of those teams a little bit more than they otherwise would. This means that when you make NFL picks on the Packers, you will be seeing bad lines pretty much all year.
This does not means that you have to avoid making NFL picks on the Packers all year. Much to the contrary, there will be plenty of times when making NFL picks on the Packers is the smart move. You should recognize these spots and take advantage of them. As a general rule, though, betting the Packers in 2011 will be negative expected value. If you realize this early on, then your NFL betting numbers will a lot better in review at the end of the season.